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December sales activity rises again, but so does supply

Sales activity for all product types improved in December and pushed monthly sales to long-term averages for the second month in a row.

However, new listings also rose, keeping inventory elevated compared to typical levels for December. With more supply remaining compared to sales, benchmark prices edged down for the fifth consecutive month.

“Many of the economic indicators continue to post modest improvements, including improving sales. However, demand gains have not outpaced the additional supply coming into the housing market. This is creating some of the bumpiness in terms of price recovery,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie, who added that prices have stayed comparable to last year.

The gap between detached supply and demand closed in the first half of 2017 and supported early price growth. As prices improved, this was perceived as a signal for many who delayed selling their home, and caused a late rise in inventory that limited price growth.

Overall, the detached benchmark price in 2017 averaged $504,867, 0.63 per cent above last year’s levels.

Challenges continue to face the apartment sector, with elevated supply in the resale market. The new-home and rental markets weighed on this sector. The excess supply caused average annual benchmark prices to decline by four per cent this year. This is a total annual adjustment of nearly 12 per cent since the start of the recession.

In the attached sector, the first half of the year saw an improvement in sales relative to inventory levels. This supported stronger price gains in the second and third quarter. However, a late rise in inventory levels took some of the momentum away from price growth. On an annual basis, attached prices totalled $332,325, comparable to last year’s levels.

“This year, we saw a rise in the number of consumers willing to purchase in the market with the expectation that the economy had already shifted. There were also many who waited to list their property until prices showed more stability,” said CREB® president David P. Brown.

“Those who acted were typically driven by long-term plans that best suit their current lifestyle. We are ending the year with stronger sales in the last quarter, but supply levels are holding back price gains. The year played out as expected, with a transition from price declines to general price stability in most sectors of the market.”

For more information on the 2017 housing market, CREB®’s 2018 Forecast Conference & Tradeshow (crebforecast.com) will be on Jan. 31.

 

Creb: Mid-Year market update shows stability

by Stewart J Lowe & Associates


 

CREB® forecasts a process of recovery for the remainder of 2017

The first-half of 2017 marked a shift in Alberta's economy from recession to recovery, with conditions supporting stability rather than expansion.

"Economic challenges continue to exist, as high unemployment rates, weak migration levels and more stringent lending conditions are weighing on the housing market," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. 

"This will continue to cause some adjustments in the housing market for the remainder of this year. However, this is not expected to offset earlier gains supporting general stability in 2017." 

Resale sales activity is expected to total 18,401 units in 2017, a 3.3 per cent improvement over last year. The pace of growth is slightly faster than originally anticipated, due to the stronger growth that occurred in the first half of the year.  

"We saw many of those consumers who delayed any purchasing decisions willing to re-enter the market as concerns regarding the economy eased," said CREB® president David P. Brown. 

"More potential buyers on the market helped move some of the product in inventory and started to create some price stability." 

Improvements in the supply demand balance, primarily in the detached and attached sector, caused prices to start to trend up. Demand growth through the remainder of the year is expected to ease relative to inventory levels. This should prevent further substantial shifts in pricing. Overall, annual city wide prices are expected to remain at levels comparable to last year.

Despite generally improving trends, difficulties continue to exist in the condo-apartment ownership market. Rising sales cannot keep pace with the growth in new listings, keeping supply levels high and placing continued downward pressure on prices. This area of the housing market will likely continue to face challenges well into next year, as it will take time to absorb additional inventory in the resale, new and rental markets. 

"Improvements in the labour market are supporting the shift in the housing market this year. However, activity over the past two years was amongst the weakest we have seen since the financial crisis," said Lurie.

"While the shift is welcome news for many, we continue to expect that process of recovery will be slow and dependent on the property type and location within the market." 

For more information, please refer to the CREB®'s 2017 Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Mid-Year Update below

CREB VIDEO: January 2017 market improves over last year

by Stewart J Lowe & Associates

The latest from Creb, looks like the Calgary market could be on the way back!

Stewart J Lowe & Associates. Real Estate Professionals Inc

NEW CMHC RATES

by Stewart J Lowe & Associates

Calgary home sales rise for second consecutive month- NOV 2016

by Stewart J Lowe & Associates

REID SOUTHWICK- Calgary HERALD

NOVEMBER 1 2016

Calgary’s real estate market surged in October as home sales reached pre-recession levels for the first time in two years.

Sales increased from year-ago levels for the second straight month, with more than 1,600 housing units sold in October, a nearly 16% spike from 2015 levels.

Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist with the Calgary Real Estate Board, said the lift in sales may be linked to mortgage rule changes, falling prices and availability of homes with lower price ranges.

Lurie said sales growth was unexpectedly high, but she remained cautious about whether it signalled a trend or simply a blip in an otherwise depressed market.

“Not just did it increase, but it rose to levels that were really consistent with what we’ve seen in normal conditions,” she said. “It is just one month to see that level of activity, so it is something I want to continue to monitor.”

 

Jesse Davies, a Calgary real estate agent, said he closed six sales last month, a big boost from the two or three deals he has been inking monthly in the past two recession-riddled years.

“People are trying to time the bottom of the market, and I think people kind of think the bottom may be here and want to catch it before the upswing,” he said. 

The increase in sales helped put a dent in the number of homes on the market, as inventory fell 3.5 % from a year ago, marking the first decline in at least 21 months.

Average home prices rose slightly, up one per cent to $462,279, but that likely indicates more higher-end homes selling rather than an increase in home values; the median price was down two per cent.

Benchmark prices for single detached homes — the price of a “typical” Calgary home — fell 3.2 % in October, while benchmark prices for apartments faced a steep decline of 6.3 %, the real estate board said.

Sales were up across all housing categories, the board said, with the largest gains in detached homes.

Sales were also heavily concentrated in lower-priced homes. Among single detached homes, the greatest amount of sales growth occurred in houses priced $300,000 to $400,000.

Despite lower prices, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said in its most recent housing report there continues to be moderate evidence of over-pricing in Calgary’s real estate market.

The indicator means current prices are not supported by the economic reality in a city dealing with a protracted downturn and high unemployment.

Still, Canada Mortgage and Housing analyst Richard Cho said there have been improvements in the past year.

“We have seen prices adjust and start to get closer to the current economic environment,” Cho said. “We do expect to see the market gradually shift from a buyer’s market to more of a balanced market as we move into 2017.” 

rsouthwick@postmedia.com

 

CREB: AUGUST STATS VIDEO 2016

by Stewart J Lowe & Associates

Average house price in Canada jumps 15%

by Stewart J Lowe & Associates

Average house price in Canada jumps 15% to $508,567 in March

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/business/crea-house-prices-march-1.3537143

Good news for brokers and homebuyers - Justin da Rosa

by Stewart J Lowe & Associates

Apr 15, 2016

Broker channel economist: Record-low interest rates are here to stay and the economy is stronger than you think.

“So you want to know where interest rates are headed then listen to the Bank of Canada – and it’s saying no interest rate hike in 2016. There’s no need for one,” Michael Campbell, Verico’s economist, wrote in his latest economic report, which was obtained by MortgageBrokerNews.ca. “There’s no inflationary pressure or demand pressure implying a rate hike. Our manufacturing sector may be recovering but it’s not expanding – hence no upward pressure on rates.”

That’s good news for broker and, indeed, homebuyers; inexpensive mortgages were one of the driving factors that made 2015 one of the best year on record for many industry players.

According to Campbell, the Bank of Canada recognizes the stimulation the low looney has had on the economy and will be in no hurry to thrust the dollar higher by increasing interest rates.

“The bottom line is that The Bank of Canada doesn’t want a stronger dollar until our recovery becomes more secure, especially given the precarious global economic environment,” Campell wrote. “I suspect that in both the States and Canada the central bankers are far more concerned about a global shock impacting their respective economies than anything domestic.”

Also in the report, Campbell shared his bullish outlook for the economy – which is being driven by Vancouver and Toronto.

“The overall economy led by Greater Vancouver and Toronto is far stronger than most people realize,” Campbell wrote. “The only serious trouble spots in Canada are those regions impacted by the massive drop in resource prices – especially oil producing provinces. 

“But even in Alberta things may be improving if the 19,000 jobs created in March is not just a one off event.”

Spring has come early!! - Creb

by Stewart J Lowe & Associates

 

Home prices declined further in March as economic conditions weigh on Calgary’s housing market.. But spring has come early!! Creb Video

Qualifying for a Mortgage as a Self-Employed Applicant.-Al Nenshi

by Stewart J Lowe & Associates

Qualifying for a Mortgage as a Self-Employed Applicant.


If you are self-employed, you can still qualify to buy a house, but it can be a bit trickier as most lenders will require a track record of consistent income. READ MORE The standard is a two year average of your net taxable income. Lenders do recognize that many self-employed individuals will make legitimate tax deductions in order to reduce their taxable income. If you don’t pay taxes on the income, the lenders will most likely not accept anymore then the net declared income.

If you’re self-employed and show a HIGH net income, and can prove that you’re earning a healthy gross income, and that your deductions are limited to your field you’ll be good to go. Your income tax portion will not be brought down.

For example: If a net line 150 income was $98,000 in year one, and was $122,000 in year two the 2-year average is: $98,000 + $122,000 / 2 = $110,000
$110,000 is the number we use as the 2-year average of income.

Lower annual incomes will show different brackets of down payment requirements and financing options. A trained mortgage professional should be able to review your financial statements and find items that may be allowed to be ‘added back’ into your income. Call Al today!

 

Displaying blog entries 1-10 of 24

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Photo of Stewart J. Lowe &  Associates Real Estate
Stewart J. Lowe & Associates
Real Estate Professionals Inc
202 5403 Crowchild Trail
Calgary AB T3B 4Z1
Direct: 403-850-0669
Fax: (403) 476-7608